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The CML Close - Stocks dropped, inflation cools, spending cools, metals are in deflation - 06-30-2022




Date Published:



Markets
Stocks dropped but the Fed's most watched inflation gauge came in lower than estimates, fell for the third straight month and is at the lowest level in six-months.

The price of metals on commodity exchanges are plummeting signaling deflationary pressures, for now.

SPX 3,785.38 -33.45 (-0.88%)
NASD 11,028.74 -149.16 (-1.33%)
DJIA 30,775.43 -253.88 (-0.82%)
R2K 1,701.36 -18.01 (-1.05%)
VIX 28.84 +0.68 (+2.41%)
Oil 105.88 -3.90 (-3.55%)

• Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation came in lower than expected for the May reading out today.

• Metals are in a deflationary trend, quickly eroding inflationary prices.

• Personal spending in the US came in lower than estimates and was the weakest reading of the calendar year.

Headlines of the Day
Dow Drops as Brutal First Half of 2022 Draws to an End
The stock market likely won’t move sustainably higher until it is more certain that the rate of inflation is decelerating quickly.

Tech Is at Risk as J.P. Morgan Lowers Estimates
J.P. Morgan tech analysts moved to lower their financial expectations for all companies in their coverage.

Metals Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008 on Global Downturn Angst
The LME metals index is down 23% since the end of March. Tin led losses, but copper and aluminum have also crashed.

The market’s worst first half in 50 years has all come down to one thing
A multitude of factors conspired to generate the stock market’s worst first-half since 1970, all centering on inflation.

Bank of America’s Crypto Users Shrunk by 50% in Bear Market
Crypto comprises less than 1% of US household financial assets. Sentiment toward cryptocurrencies has soured, says BofA.

Economic Data Results for 6-30-2022
United States PCE Price Index Annual Change
The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased 6.3% year-on-year in May of 2022 versus estimates of 6.4% after hitting a record high rate of 6.6% in March.

United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change
The core PCE Price Index inflation, the preferred gauge of inflation by the Fed, eased to 4.7 percent in May of 2022 from 4.9 percent in the prior month, the lowest in six months and slightly below market expectations of 4.8 percent.


United States Personal Spending
Personal spending in the US edged up 0.2% month-over-month in May of 2022 versus estimates of 0.4%, the weakest gain so far this year.

United States Chicago PMI
The Chicago PMI fell to 56 in June of 2022 from 60.3 in May, below forecasts of 58. It is the lowest reading since August of 2020.

Economic Data Due Tomorrow on 7-1-2022
ISM Manufacturing PMI

ISM Manufacturing Prices

Construction Spending

ISM Manufacturing New Orders



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